You’re the PM at Roblox, and you’ve found that total robux spent has decreased by 10% in the past week. How would you go about finding the root cause?

Prompt:
Suppose you’re the PM at Roblox, and you’ve found that total robux spent has decreased by 10% in the past week. How would you go about finding the root cause?

If I were the PM at Roblox and noticed a 10% decrease in total Robux spent over the past week, I would take the following steps to diagnose and address the issue:

1. Data Validation and Segmentation

• Check Data Accuracy: First, I’d ensure the decrease is not due to a data error, such as a bug in the analytics tracking, a server issue, or an error in the data pipeline.
• Segment the Data: Break down the decline by various factors to identify patterns:
  • User Demographics: Analyze the decrease by user age, region, and platform (e.g., mobile vs. PC).
  • Game/Experience Type: Identify if the decrease is concentrated in specific types of games or experiences.
  • Top Developers: Review if the drop is related to spending on games by top developers or if it’s more widespread.
  • In-App Purchases: Determine if the decrease is due to fewer purchases of items like avatar accessories, game passes, or other in-app purchases.

2. Investigate External Factors

• Seasonality: Compare the current period to previous years to see if there’s a historical trend that might explain the decrease, such as a typical dip during back-to-school weeks.
• Competitor Activity: Check if there were any major updates, promotions, or events by competing platforms (e.g., Fortnite, Minecraft) that could have drawn users away from Roblox.
• Economic Factors: Consider broader economic factors that might influence discretionary spending, especially among younger users and their parents.

3. Internal Product and Experience Analysis

• Recent Updates or Changes: Review any recent updates to the platform, including changes to the economy, new features, or adjustments to the Robux pricing structure, to see if they might have negatively impacted spending behavior.
• Popular Games and Experiences: Analyze the top games and experiences that typically drive Robux spending. Investigate if any of them have seen a significant drop in engagement or if any issues (e.g., bugs, updates that weren’t well received) have affected their performance.
• Promotions and Events: Look at any recent or ongoing promotions or events within Roblox. Determine if a recent event concluded and if the absence of such an event led to the decrease in spending.

4. User Behavior Analysis

• Engagement Metrics: Check if there has been a decline in active users, session length, or other key engagement metrics. A decrease in these areas could directly correlate with the drop in Robux spending.
• User Feedback: Gather qualitative data from user reviews, forums, and social media to identify any negative sentiment or complaints that could explain a reduction in spending.
• Survey and Direct Feedback: If possible, deploy a survey to users, particularly those who have spent Robux in the past but not in the last week, to gather direct feedback on why they haven’t spent recently.

5. Developer Community Insights

• Developer Discussions: Engage with the developer community to understand if they’ve noticed any changes in spending behavior within their games. Developers might have insights into whether recent updates, bugs, or trends have affected user spending.
• Revenue Share Insights: Analyze if there’s been a shift in revenue share distribution among developers. A change in how earnings are distributed might highlight specific areas or developers who are underperforming.

6. Investigate Platform and Technical Issues

• Technical Problems: Review any recent technical issues, such as server outages or payment processing problems, that might have affected users’ ability or willingness to spend Robux.
• User Interface Changes: Examine if there were any recent changes to the purchasing process, such as UI updates, that could have introduced friction or confusion in making purchases.

7. Market and Currency Analysis

• Robux Exchange Rate: Check if there were any fluctuations in the exchange rate between real-world currencies and Robux that might have affected purchasing behavior, especially in regions where currency value may fluctuate more frequently.
• Price Sensitivity: Analyze if there’s been any change in the pricing of items or in-game purchases that might have led to a decrease in spending due to price sensitivity.

8. Actionable Steps Based on Findings

• If User Engagement is Down: Focus on re-engagement campaigns, such as special events, limited-time offers, or marketing initiatives to bring users back.
• If a Specific Game/Experience is Affected: Collaborate with the developers of that game to identify and address the issue, whether it’s a bug, a poorly received update, or a need for new content.
• If the Issue is Platform-Wide: Consider implementing broader changes or introducing new features to stimulate spending, such as new types of in-game purchases, a revamped marketplace, or exclusive content.

9. Communication and Reporting

• Prepare a Report: Compile the findings, including potential causes and recommended actions, into a report for key stakeholders.
• Stakeholder Alignment: Ensure that all relevant teams, including development, marketing, and customer support, are aligned on the next steps to address the issue.

10. Monitoring and Future Prevention

• Set Up Alerts: Implement real-time monitoring and alerts for similar issues in the future to react more quickly.
• Continuous Improvement: Use the insights from this analysis to refine the product strategy, focusing on enhancing the user experience and increasing spending.

By following this detailed approach, I would systematically identify the root cause of the decline in Robux spending and take the appropriate steps to mitigate it and prevent future occurrences.